Thursday, November 14, 2013

Runner’s Log #12 – Weather Forecasting, and Other Forms of Chicanery



As befits a first time marathoner unsure of what he has gotten himself into, I have been checking the forecast for race day (Saturday!) for as far back as the weather people have dared say anything.  And mostly the anticipated weather has been nigh perfect for running.  Originally they were saying upper 30s in the morning and upper 50s by midday.  That evolved during the course of this past week to 40s to near 50 at race time to mid 60s by the afternoon.  No rain mentioned.  Beautiful.


So this morning, as I casually checked the weather for Richmond on Saturday, imagine my shock to discover RAIN!  50% chance of AM showers.  I had undertaken this exercise to see just how accurate these people’s forecasts were 10 days out.  I have discovered my answer.  Not only is there a 10-15 degree difference in temperature from when I checked a week ago to what they are saying now, but the condition has constantly changed from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy to mostly sunny to partly cloudy to, now just cloudy and rain.

Richmond, VA

Saturday
Nov 16

65° | 52°
Showers
 

Why bother making a 10 day forecast when the results seem hardly better than a 10 day guess?  So after 8 days of confidence that I was going to have perfect running weather for my first marathon, now it would seem I’ll get to experience the ordeal of running a very long way and for a very long time in the rain.  Yay.


 At least it won’t be cold, or windy, or snowing.  At least that’s what these weather people claim.  We’ll see what they say tomorrow.  We’ll see what actually happens on Saturday.